By Sharon Palmer, Director of Group Accounts and Client Success at IDHL
2025 is proving to be a year of economic déjà vu. Fresh from years of pandemic fallout and geopolitical uncertainty, marketers are now reacting to a new disruption: sweeping US trade tariffs that are shaking up global commerce, rattling consumer confidence, and redrawing marketing plans at speed.
Just last week, President Trump announced the first trade deal – with the UK. As British marketers digest what this means for their strategies, this week kicked off with even bigger news: the US and China have agreed to slash reciprocal tariffs by 115% for 90 days, reducing US tariffs on Chinese imports from 145% to 30%.
This is 2025’s defining marketing challenge: planning amid constant policy shifts that rewrite the rules overnight.
The pace of change is remarkable – pricing and market allocation strategies crafted in April may now already need significant adjustment. One luxury travel client told me they’ve seen bookings stall compared to seasonal expectations – not because interest has dropped, but because affluent consumers are pausing major purchases during this volatility. They’re anticipating a “compression effect” with multiple bookings happening in quick succession once some stability returns.
The so-called “Trump Tariffs” aren’t just political theatre. Since January, a 10% blanket tariff on most US imports – paired with retaliatory duties from China, Canada, and Mexico – has accelerated economic uncertainty. The World Trade Organization has warned that these measures could cut global GDP growth from an expected 2.8% to just 2.2%.
What makes this moment so challenging for marketers is the unprecedented complexity – we’re navigating a maze of stacked tariffs that can vary wildly by product and country of origin. Even with the reduction news, the 30% tariff on Chinese goods remains historically high, creating significant market distortion.
As digital strategists at IDHL, we’ve been closely monitoring how this volatility is affecting marketing budgets and consumer behaviours. It’s clear this new disruption is unevenly impacting different sectors.
It has been reported that 40% of advertisers are planning budget cuts of 6–10% and this year’s Q1 IPA Bellwether report showed UK marketing budgets fell for the first time in four years, largely driven by a “wait and see” attitude among brands.
Yet not all channels are feeling the squeeze equally. Investment in performance channels like retail media and paid search remains surprisingly steady. These channels offer what many CMOs now crave most: measurable return on investment in an unpredictable environment.
The whiplash effect of these changes is particularly evident in cross-border retail. One of our clients with historically balanced UK/US revenue saw a dramatic shift from 50/50 to 75/25 UK/US split in just one week after implementing tariff-driven price changes. Adding to the complexity, every clothing item now carries a $32 handling charge – a direct consequence of customs processing changes that materialised almost overnight.
Consumers too are responding to tariff-driven instability. In the US, 77% of people report financial anxiety, and one in five is stockpiling in anticipation of rising prices. In the UK, a massive 78% of workers remain concerned about the rising cost of living. This financial anxiety is shaping consumer habits in surprising ways: fashion retailers are seeing short-term dips, while large purchases – like appliances and cars – are spiking as buyers act before further price hikes hit.
This isn’t just about surviving disruption, it’s about adapting to a new constant: change. The brands emerging strongest from this volatility are those building digital agility into the core of their marketing strategies.
How can Marketers build agility in 2025?
- Invest in First-Party Data
As social platforms fluctuate in cost and policy, owned data becomes more valuable. Now is the time to double down on CRM segmentation, email automation, and personalised customer journeys. Our data shows that personalised approaches deliver tangible results, with targeted emails generating up to 29% higher open rates and 41% higher click-through rates compared to generic communications. In this uncertain climate, those metrics translate directly to resilience. - Practice Radical Transparency
Consumers understand that global forces impact pricing. Brands that clearly communicate why prices are changing – whether on social, email, or product pages – are building trust that drives loyalty. - Optimise for Local Sentiment
As uncertainty fuels a shift toward domestic purchasing, even international brands can benefit from signalling local roots – whether in manufacturing, employment, or supply chain. With the US-UK deal creating new competitive advantages for British manufacturers, there’s an even stronger case for emphasising domestic production credentials. - Use Smart Geo-Targeting
With regional price disparities widening, reallocate spend based on where margins remain healthiest. Tools like Shopify Markets or Global-e offer accessible ways to expand into less tariff-exposed regions. The numbers tell the story: imagine selling leather sandals priced at $300. If sourced from China, your landed cost with tariffs now jumps to $390 (down from $765 before the latest announcement). The same product from France? $360. While the gap has narrowed, geographic strategy remains critical. - Upgrade Your Tech Stack
Real-time inventory syncing, dynamic pricing, and predictive analytics are now baseline requirements. With critical policy changes happening weekly (like Monday’s tariff reductions), marketers need systems that can adapt pricing, messaging and targeting almost instantly. When volatility strikes, the ability to pivot in real time across channels isn’t just a nice-to-have, it’s essential. To put this in historical context: US tariffs have jumped from an average 2.5% in 2024 to 14.5% in 2025 – the highest level since 1938. When economic fundamentals shift this dramatically, manual adjustments simply can’t keep pace.
We’ve already seen this play out in sectors like manufacturing. Brands like Aston Martin have limited exports to the US, while Jaguar Land Rover paused theirs entirely last month – reflecting how physical supply chains are being disrupted. In contrast, digital-first brands retain a greater ability to adapt, market by market. With Monday’s US-China tariff reductions, these calculations change yet again, highlighting the value of responsive systems.
And it isn’t over. The US-China deal is only a 90-day pause. Mark July 8th on your calendar when the current 90-day pause on country-specific reciprocal tariffs expires, potentially triggering another wave of trade policy changes. The businesses that thrive won’t be those hoping for stability, but those building systems designed for continual adaptation.
The most effective marketers are operating more like air traffic control than cruise control – constantly rerouting, adapting and responding to real-time data across markets and channels.
Our clients are seeing success by focusing not on static plans, but on agile, data-led execution. In volatile markets, the traditional quarterly and annual planning cycles are being replaced by a continuous loop of sensing, testing and optimising.
We may not be able to control the uncertainty but we can build strategies designed to thrive within it. The US-UK and US-China deals show how rapidly the trade landscape can shift. While these changes create significant challenges, they also underscore the importance of responsive strategies that can adapt to evolving circumstances.
